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Forecasting

Last updated on February 7, 2017

Note: Some features mentioned here may not be available in your region or based on your user roleA grouping of user capabilities that describe the tasks a user can perform in OpenX.. For more information, please contact your OpenX representative.

If enabled for your account, use OpenX forecasting to calculate impressionA single display of an ad on a web page, mobile app, or other delivery medium. For deals, impression is a metric to relay the total number of ads that have served. See also billable impression, forecasted impressions. estimates for your inventoryAd space available on a website or app. The basic unit of inventory for OpenX is an ad unit. and predict availability for line items. This way, you can effectively manage your inventory and successfully book campaigns against it.

Note: When using the forecasting tool, please consider the following:

Forecasting helps you:

  • Get a picture of how much inventory you will have available to sell.

    If you are responsible for booking campaigns, before booking a guaranteed line item, view forecasted impressions and predicted delivery for it. You can verify if booking a line item will meet your delivery goals and if booking it will adversely affect others that are already booked. Based on volume, the forecast tool estimates the number of impressions your inventory will have one year in the future. Select specific inventory, focus on a specific date range, and then view the forecast of how many impressions you'll have for that inventory.

  • Understand and plan for your inventory traffic.

    If you are responsible for managing ad inventory, see historical traffic data for your ad units and then view and manage predicted traffic data during certain dates and seasons. This way, you can more accurately plan your inventory setup and get a better idea of potential revenue. The forecast tool tracks and calculates volume for every ad unitThe smallest inventory component that represents the space on a site where ads display. for the past year.

  • View traffic patterns for your inventory and how they affect your forecast.

    The forecast tool calculates seasonality for your inventory, or the predicted number of impressions for the past year, based on trends in historical data. OpenX leverages this data by examining variances in the quantity of requests over time.

    For example, seasonality may reveal insights for sports inventory during football season, or retail inventory during the holiday season. Select specific inventory and focus on a specific date range to view and manage the seasonality curve.

  • Measure forecasting performance.

    Use forecasting to calculate week 1 and week 4 forecasts so that you can compare actual traffic with forecasted values for selected inventory one week and four weeks prior. Then view percentage errors (between 0 and 100), based on the difference between forecasted impressionsThe number of impressions that have been booked to deliver for a campaign. and actual impressions for selected inventory. This way, you can see how predictable your web traffic is and book campaigns for your inventory accordingly. For example, an error between 10 and 30 indicates inventory that you can book with confidence. However, a score of 80 to 90 indicates inventory that you may want to book conservatively.

  • Account for abnormal traffic patterns.

    Set overrides for the values OpenX uses in its calculations, so that abnormal scenarios do not corrupt historical data or future forecasts. That is, if a special promotion doubles traffic in the last week, you can set overrides on historical data so that this does not impact forecasting. If planning a future promotion, you can set overrides on forecast data to allow sales into the anticipated traffic increase. For example, if managing inventory for a sports siteAn OpenX component that represents top-level domains or sub-domains and is used to organize ad units. Sites enable you to target and report on inventory performance. with game days (and higher traffic) typically on Sundays, you can set overrides to adjust forecasts when game days fall on Thursdays.

  • Make sure that there is enough inventory available to fulfill your delivery goals for a guaranteed line itemA purchase that reserves inventory..

    The forecasting tool calculates and displays forecasted impressions, predicted delivery, and impacted line items that would be adversely affected if you book the new line item.

You can:

This topic applies to Ad Server. This topic applies to SSP. Most SSP activities are completed by OpenX.

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